Proximal Surrogate Measures for Proactive Safety Evaluation of Right-Angle Vehicle Collisions in an Intersection

Patrick Marvin Agramon; Ma. Bernadeth Lim; Mark Joel Uaje; Harvey Maunahan

doi:10.52751/tjn2g562

Authors

Patrick Marvin G. Agramon Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering Graduate, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines Author
Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines Author
Mark Joel B. Uaje Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines Author
Harvey S. Maunahan Instructor, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering and Agro-Industrial Technology, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52751/tjn2g562

Keywords:

Road safety, Unsignalized T-junction, Intersection accident analysis, Post encroachment time

Abstract

As road traffic accidents, injuries, and deaths have been persistent throughout the years, the demand for road safety development has increased. This study focuses on developing proactive safety evaluations of unsignalized intersections by using the proximal surrogate measure of Post-Encroachment Time (PET) in measuring the risk of transverse collisions. Procedures involved the determination of peak hour period, manual measurement of PET, identification of critical conflict zones, and development of prediction models for crash estimations. A total of 1551 conflicts were observed, in which an average PET value of 3.57s was obtained. The PET dataset was subjected to goodness-of-fit tests, and the best-fitting model of Johnson SU distribution was determined. Through this statistical model, the probability of right-angle collisions was determined to be 18.11%. Subsequently, it was estimated that 793 crashes per year are predicted to occur within the intersection. The determination of intersection safety levels was unfeasible due to the lack of relative safety standards for this procedure. However, the study has provided safety parameters that can be used as references in evaluating risk mitigation policies and safety projects for the intersection.

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